Three Men Shoot and Only One of Them Hits the Target. Find the Probability that it was the First Man

Problem
The probabilities that three men hit a target are 1/6, 1/4, and 1/3, respectively. Each shoot once at the target. If only one of them hits the target, find the probability that it was the first man.
 

Answer Key

 

Poisson Probability Distribution

The number of occurrences in a given time interval or in a given space can be modeled using Poisson Distribution if the following conditions are being satisfied:

  • The events occur at random.
  • The events are independent from one another.
  • The average rate of occurrences is constant.
  • There are no simultaneous occurrences.

 

The Poisson distribution is defined as

$P(x) = \dfrac{e^{-\mu} \mu^x}{x!}$

where x is a discrete random variable

P(x) = probability for x occurrences
μ = the mean number of occurrences

Probability

Probability
For outcomes that are equally likely to occur:

$P = \dfrac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of possible outcomes}}$

 

If the probability of an event to happen is p and the probability for it to fail is q, then

$p + q = 1$