A truth serum given to a suspect is known to be 90% reliable when the person is guilty and 99% reliable when the person is innocent.
A truth serum given to a suspect is known to be 90% reliable when the person is guilty and 99% reliable when the person is innocent. If the suspect was selected from a group of suspects of which only 5% have ever committed a crime, and the serum indicates that he is guilty, what is the probability that he is innocent?